20 days and counting: What to watch in tonight's presidential debate
Linda Peek Schacht |
— By Linda Peek Schacht, leader-in-residence and veteran political communicator in White House, the Congress and presidential campaigns
Tonight presidential hopefuls Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump square off in Las Vegas, an appropriate venue for outlandish spectacles and alternate realities, which, unfortunately for voters, are not uncommon in this election year.
Audience: Who Watches?
The last debate in a Presidential campaign usually draws the lowest audience; it comes late enough in the campaign that most voters have made up their minds. That’s bad news for Donald Trump, because there is overwhelming evidence that the most important debate is the first debate, when a larger share of undecided voters is seeking more information. The Republican nominee has been steadily falling in national and battleground state polls since the first debate.
But that research may not completely reflect the transformed media environment. In the age of Twitter, as we have seen, what happens in a debate can linger for weeks, this time right up to election day.
Another key audience very interested in tonight: down ballot Republicans, especially those in contested Senate seats. Trump’s sinking numbers have them worried about their races.
Agenda setting: It’s not about me
With two candidates with the highest unfavorable ratings in modern presidential campaign history, the path to election this year is to make the campaign about the other person. Despite the efforts of his staff, Trump has made the campaign, especially since the first debate, about him. And he has done it in ways that have driven his poll numbers down--especially among women.
Can he make it about her? Donald Trump has one last chance to attempt the “agenda-setting” that can change the conversation to focus on the Democratic candidate. Given her rise in the last few weeks, it is a risk, but one he has to take.
He should be laser-focused on Secretary Clinton to reframe the debate around issues in her record, and President Obama’s legacy. Republicans have believed the economy, foreign affairs, and trustworthiness were weaknesses to be exploited, if only their candidate could stay focused on them.
That’s a tall order and he has not shown the discipline thus far to accomplish it. Tonight’s the night to change that.
Can he stay out of her space?
His lurking behind her in the second debate ranks with historic gaffes that hurt candidates: Gerald Ford’s faulty knowledge of Eastern Europe, George H.W. Bush’s looking at his watch and Al Gore’s audible sighing.
Can she make it about him?
Watch for Secretary Clinton to let Trump be Trump as much as she can.
Her best opportunity to reinforce his falling poll numbers is to bait him into defending himself by attacking others. She did this effectively in the first debate.
He can still be baited, shown by the inexplicable invitation to President Obama’s estranged half-brother to sit in the front row tonight. The invitation was made after the President called for him to “quit whining” and dial down the rhetoric about the campaign being rigged “at the polling places”.
But Secretary Clinton has another, much more difficult goal tonight; she will be required to play defense and give short, simple, easy-to-understand answers—and apologies where appropriate—for issues likely to come up. Questions and attacks about her personal server, the inside baseball comments in the hacked emails (voters don’t like seeing the sausage being made); Benghazi, are all fair game. The recent US support of Iraqi troops and Syrian rebels taking back ISIS territory would be a risk for her to use, but might help her with a tough task. It’s not easy to explain, in three minutes, a complex world and how countries successfully-and sometimes unsuccessfully-- operate in it, and why a calm, deliberate, informed approach is needed. She begins to sound like the policy wonk she is.
Bottom line: She has a substantive record to defend from a life in public service. He doesn’t. That cuts both ways. But little about this year’s debates has been about facts. Tonight, in Las Vegas, expect no different.
The moderator: Will he ask what we need to know?
According to the Commission on Presidential Debates, the debate will consist of six 15-minute sections: debt and entitlements, immigration, the economy, the Supreme Court, foreign hot spots, and fitness to be president. In a normal year, it would hold the potential for a robust discussion of issues.
Chris Wallace of Fox News has said he will be a timekeeper not a fact checker. That leaves fact checking to both candidates, which is a challenge for Secretary Clinton in deciding which of Trump’s sometime fact-free assertions to take on, and a challenge for Trump in staying on point long enough to hold Secretary Clinton’s feet to the fire.
Both candidates should be wary of Mike Wallace’s son who is likely to channel his father’s commitment to getting an answer, no matter how many times he has to ask.
Wallace will likely ask them both if they will concede the election if they lose, and call for their supporters to join in a peaceful transfer of power. Sad that it has to be asked but such is the nature of this campaign. We are in dangerous ground for our democracy and Wallace should get that answer.